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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
THE MOTION OF ERIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FEW 
HOURS...BUT SMOOTHING OUT THE WIGGLES GIVES 025/7.  THIS IS LEFT OF 
THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... 
SUGGESTS THAT ERIN WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THAT WILL 
TAKE IT OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SHADED A 
LITTLE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
 
WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE ARE STILL ABOUT 26C...AND 
ERIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE DVORAK 
T-NUMBER FROM TAFB IS ACTUALLY UP A BIT COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO.  
THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT.  AFTER ANOTHER 12 HOURS...WATER 
TEMPERATURES COOL RAPIDLY.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 40.2N  59.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 41.7N  58.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 44.1N  56.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     15/1800Z 53.0N  47.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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