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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
THE MOTION OF ERIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT SMOOTHING OUT THE WIGGLES GIVES 025/7. THIS IS LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
SUGGESTS THAT ERIN WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THAT WILL
TAKE IT OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SHADED A
LITTLE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE ARE STILL ABOUT 26C...AND
ERIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE DVORAK
T-NUMBER FROM TAFB IS ACTUALLY UP A BIT COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO.
THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT. AFTER ANOTHER 12 HOURS...WATER
TEMPERATURES COOL RAPIDLY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 40.2N 59.9W 70 KTS
12HR VT 14/0600Z 41.7N 58.7W 65 KTS
24HR VT 14/1800Z 44.1N 56.0W 60 KTS
36HR VT 15/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/1800Z 53.0N 47.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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