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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS MOTION.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST 
THINKING AND THE FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME 
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THE EYE IS LARGE BUT REMAINS WELL DEFINED.  DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 70 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER 
COOLER WATERS IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 39.1N  60.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 40.2N  59.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 43.0N  57.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 46.5N  53.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     15/1200Z 50.5N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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