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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/07. THE EYE OF ERIN REMAINS LARGE 
BUT WELL-DEFINED.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SST WATER AND 
SHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OCEAN TEMPERATURES FOR 
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 
THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPCIAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORERCAST TRACK REASONING. ERIN 
IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD BY ALL THE MODELS AND 
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE THE 
CYCLONE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.  ERIN IS EXPECTED TO 
PASS CLOSE TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND TO CORRESPOND WITH 
THE MPC HIGH SEAS/MARINE FORECASTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 38.5N  60.7W    70 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 39.5N  59.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 41.6N  57.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 44.3N  54.8W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     15/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     16/0600Z 60.0N  42.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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