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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
THE EYE BRIEFLY TIGHTENED UP THIS EVENING BUT IS AGAIN BECOMING
DIFFUSE.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 75 KNOTS.
AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWARD...SSTS WILL BE
COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE TRACK.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  HOWEVER
ERIN MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COLD WATER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 72 HOURS.

ERIN HAS SHOWN HINTS OF LITTLE TURN TO THE LEFT.  AN EASTWARD-
MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...SHOULD ACCELERATE ERIN NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO.  MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SHOWS ERIN
PASSING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 38.2N  61.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 38.6N  60.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 40.4N  58.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 42.9N  55.8W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 46.0N  53.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 57.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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