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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...BUT LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 75 KNOTS.  ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS 
TO TURN NORTHWARD...SSTS WILL BE COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE 
TRACK.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH 
THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  HOWEVER ERIN MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE 
TO COLD WATER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 
72 HOURS...PERHAPS SOONER.

ERIN HAS BEEN MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST.  AN
EASTWARD-MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR SO.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MODIFICATION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO MOVE THE SYSTEM A BIT FASTER IN
2-3 DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 38.0N  61.6W    75 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 38.2N  60.6W    70 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 39.5N  59.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 41.5N  57.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 44.0N  54.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 50.0N  49.0W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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