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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001

ERIN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES.  
HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 30 N MI DIAMETER EYE ARE 
GRADUALLY WARMING.  THE LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND 
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD...PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH 
OF EAST.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ERIN MAY BE 
RETARDING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT...BUT THE UPPER LOW'S 
INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...WITH THE 
PRIMARY STEERING BEING DUE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE 
LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...AND 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 38.0N  62.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 38.4N  60.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 39.5N  59.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 41.0N  57.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 43.0N  56.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 47.0N  52.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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