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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW DOWN TO 77
KT...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD.  SINCE THE
HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO BE SLOW.
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

RECENT RUNS OF THE AVN MODEL HAVE HANDLED ERIN REASONABLE WELL.  IT 
FORECASTS THAT THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL 
AMPLIFY AND TURN THE CYCLONE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  THE UKMET AND 
GFDL CONCUR AND THIS INCREASES THE THREAT TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 38.0N  64.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 38.4N  62.7W    75 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 38.7N  61.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 39.9N  59.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 42.0N  57.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 48.0N  52.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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