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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
ERIN REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE WITH ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING 
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 
355/06...WHICH INDICATES THAT ERIN IS ON THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
PREPARING TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE OCCURRING WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 
48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY 
WITH NOGAPS BEING THE WESTERNMOST MODEL BY TAKING ERIN WEST OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE GFDL MODEL RACES THE HURRICANE OFF TO THE 
EAST-NORTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN 
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ERIN SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO DECREASING 
SSTS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY 72 HOURS...ERIN MAY BEGIN TO 
MERGE WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL LIKELY BE A HAZARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 37.2N  65.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 38.0N  65.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 38.8N  63.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 39.3N  61.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 40.0N  59.3W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 43.5N  54.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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