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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ERIN.
FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE DOWN TO
100 KNOTS...PERHAPS LESS.  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A DROP NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER AND
VALUES EXTRAPOLATED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL.  THE WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS
THAT ERIN HAS FORMED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THE
MORE INTENSE HURRICANES.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AT A
SIMILAR RATE AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/7...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  EVEN
MORE SLOWING IS FORECAST AS ERIN TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY.  A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS
MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE ERIN TO THE NORTHEAST.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER ERIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT COULD 
CHANGE.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL LIKELY BE A HAZARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 36.0N  65.4W   100 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 36.9N  65.5W    95 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 37.5N  64.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 38.4N  62.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 39.5N  59.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 42.0N  55.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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