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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT 
...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 105 KT.  THE EYE HAS 
BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED 
SLIGHTLY.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT EXCELLENT 
TO THE EAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ERIN IS EXPECTED 
TO SLOW DOWN IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE 
NORTH AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AXIS.  THE APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER 
THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP ERIN 
AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK AND ALSO IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL TRACKS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF ERIN...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE 
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND 
MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 34.7N  64.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 35.9N  64.8W   100 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 37.1N  64.8W    95 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 38.2N  63.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 39.0N  61.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 41.0N  57.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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