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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001
...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KTS...
LAST RECON WAS AROUND 11Z...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED FOR 
18Z.  MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING A LITTLE 
BETTER DEFINED ALTHOUGH THE SURROUNDING TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A LITTLE FROM THE 
PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  HOWEVER ERIN STILL 
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THE FIRST MAJOR...CAT 3...HURRICANE OF 
THE SEASON.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12.  ERIN IS MOVING THROUGH A SLIGHT 
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL... THE 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS RECURVATURE BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE 
U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER MOVEMENT TOWARD 
THE NORTHEAST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS 
MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE AVN AND NOGAPS TRACKS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 32.2N  62.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 33.5N  64.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 35.2N  65.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.4N  65.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 37.2N  65.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  63.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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