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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001
 
RECON FOUND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT AND 982 MB PRESSURE...SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND 
BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR. OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT TO NORTH AND EAST 
AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13.  ERIN HAS MADE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE 
NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE DEEP 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. 
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE ENTIRE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL 
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD 
ALLOW ERIN TO BEGIN RECURVING BETWEEN 35N AND 38N LATITUDE. 
HOWEVER...IN THE NEAR TERM...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AT 
LEAST 60 NM EAST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW RECON POSITION...AND THEN CLOSE TO 
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL ENSEMBLE.
 
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE 
AS ERIN MOVES UNDERNEATH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND ALSO DUE TO THE DIGGING 
TROUGH TO THE EAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE OUTFLOW IN 
THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY 
AND ERIN COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 31.1N  61.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 32.5N  63.4W   100 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 34.1N  65.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 35.7N  66.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  66.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     12/0600Z 38.3N  64.3W    90 KTS
 
 
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