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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A CLOUD PATTERN MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  IT NOW HAS BANDING FEATURES...DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A FAIR OUTFLOW.  T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5
AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.  A RECON PLANE WILL CHECK THE
INTENSITY IN A FEW HOURS.  AS IT HAS BEEN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IT APPEARS THAT
ERIN FINALLY IS GOING TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  WE
SHALL SEE.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS. THE UPPER-TROUGH
ALREADY MOVED BY ERIN AND A MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING TO 
THE NORTH.  THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP ERIN ON A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS 
ADVISORIES. IF THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TURN 
MORE TO THE LEFT COULD OCCUR AS INDICATED BY SOME MODELS. ERIN IS 
EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH 
AT THIS TIME.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 27.5N  59.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 28.7N  60.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  61.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 32.0N  63.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 33.5N  64.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 35.0N  65.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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