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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
 
A RECON FIX AT 0547Z GIVES A MOTION OF 325/06 FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. 
 THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THE STORM TRAPPED WITHIN A 
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE 
VARIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A 
FAIRLY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED 
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECON FIX 
AND INITIAL MOTION.

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 49 KNOTS AT 
925-MB FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE PRESSURE 
HAS FALLEN 10 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR 
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING ERIN TO 65 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.  
THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HAVE ITS UPS AND DOWNS BUT THE MOST 
RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD TOPS AND 
ORGANIZATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL COMPUTES 18 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR 
NEARBY FOR 24 HOURS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 26.7N  59.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 27.7N  59.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 29.4N  60.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 31.0N  61.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 32.5N  63.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W    65 KTS
  
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