HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
SHEAR HAS DONE IT AGAIN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS
LOST ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVED
THROUGH A PERSISTENTLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...CAUSED BY THE SHEAR
THAT NEVER RELAXED AS ANTICIPATED.  ERIN NOW HAS THE APPPEARANCE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK CENTERS OF VORTICITY ALONG ITS
AXIS.  SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR.

COMPUTER MODELS STILL INSIST ON REGENERATION...BUT THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE ALREADY TOO DETERIORATED FOR REDEVELOPMENT.
NEVERTHERLESS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND IF
NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS READY TO CHECK IT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 19.0N  58.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     06/0600Z   DISSIPATED
 
NNNN