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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 280/15.  THE 12Z AVIATION 
MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 
HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH TRACK HEADINGS
ALL BETWEEN ABOUT 290 AND 310 DEGREE HEADINGS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF 
THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS 
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS 
SUGGEST RECURVATURE FROM AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES 
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST...BUT ONLY AFTER 72 
HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED STAYS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE 
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB.  THE AFGWC ESTIMATE IS 55 KNOTS.  THE 
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ON INFRARED IMAGES...BUT 
THERE IS DECENT BANDING AND OUTFLOW.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF 
SLIGHTLY AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 69 KNOTS AT 72 HOURS 
COMPARED TO 75 KNOTS SIX HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS 
THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 14.1N  41.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.7N  43.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.4N  46.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.1N  48.7W    65 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N  51.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  56.0W    70 KTS
  
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