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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2001
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A DEPRESSION WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING HEALTHY
AND ANOTHER GOOD BURST OF CONVECTION COULD STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR
THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AVN
MODEL FORECASTS A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS
SHOW TRACKS BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH THE GFDL THE
LEFT-MOST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL AND
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 64 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS
UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE IN 72
HOURS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.1N 36.7W 30 KTS
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.7N 39.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 03/0000Z 14.7N 42.4W 40 KTS
36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.6N 45.7W 45 KTS
48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.6N 48.8W 55 KTS
72HR VT 05/0000Z 18.5N 54.0W 65 KTS
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