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TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001
 
DEAN HAS WEAKEND AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NON-EXISTENT AND MODERATE 
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ALSO CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF A SATELLITE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...T2.5... AND A CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF 55 KT...CI3.5...FROM TAFB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/20.  DEAN HAS TURNED BACK TO THE 
EAST-NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SPLIT AND DROPPED TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS INCREASED TO THE 
WEST.  THE BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER 
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD ACT TO TURN DEAN BACK 
ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK 
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND CLOSE TO 
THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS.
 
DEAN IS OVER SUB-20C SST WATER WITH COLDER WATER AHEAD OF THE 
SYSTEM.  AS SUCH...RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR WITH 
ONLY SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY OR 
MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTH OF GREENLAND AFTER 36 TO 48 
HOURS.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN.  ADDITIONAL AND 
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 44.3N  52.2W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     29/0000Z 45.6N  48.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     29/1200Z 48.2N  44.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     30/0000Z 51.1N  39.2W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     30/1200Z 54.3N  33.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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