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TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/19.  THE VARIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE 
NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION.  THIS BRINGS THE 
CENTER CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AS DEAN MOVES OVER MUCH 
COLDER WATER.  THE COLD WATER SHOULD ALSO CAUSE DEAN TO BECOME 
EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 43.2N  57.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 45.4N  54.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 48.2N  50.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     29/1200Z 50.2N  46.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     30/0000Z 53.1N  42.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     31/0000Z 56.0N  33.9W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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