ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2001 DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS STILL TRYING TO CLOSE OFF AN EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...T3.5... FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN INTERMITTENT TIGHT BANDED EYE FEATURE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/20. EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH DEAN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT MOTION IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING DEAN AND LIFTING IT MORE POLEWARD. HOWEVER... 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATE THAT A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL JET LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN DEAN BACK TO THE RIGHT OF ITS CURRENT MOTION BY 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET-AVN-GFDL CONSENSUS. DEAN HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH I CAN NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE EYE APPEARING AND DEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...TIME IS RAPIDLY RUNNING OUT FOR DEAN TO INTENSIFY SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 22C SST WATER IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BY 24 HOURS...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH OR IS ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 41.3N 58.6W 60 KTS 12HR VT 28/0600Z 43.5N 56.0W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 28/1800Z 45.7N 51.7W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 29/0600Z 47.4N 46.9W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/1800Z 50.1N 42.9W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/1800Z 54.0N 36.5W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN