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TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER 
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO 
FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 KT...T3.0 PLUS... FROM TAFB...AND 45 
KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...THE INNER CONVECTIVE 
BAND AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTIONC ENTER HAS TIGHTENED UP 
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES...SO THE INTENSITY WAS 
INCREASED. 

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/16. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE 
AMONG THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING DEAN ESSENTIALLY TO THE 
NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE 
FORWARD SPEED.  THE AVN AND THE UKMET MODELS TURN DEAN A LITTLE MORE 
NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN 
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE 
GFDL MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN AND UKMET...ONLY SLOWER.  THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 
HOURS...THEN FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AFTER 
THAT.
 
DEAN HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS LEFT FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER 26C SSTS.  
AFTER THAT...THE WATER COOLS SHARPLY BELOW 20C NORTH OF 43N 
LATITUDE.  DEAN COULD STILL BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE TODAY IF THE 
BANDED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND CLOSES OFF 
A BANDED EYE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 39.5N  59.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 41.1N  57.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 43.2N  53.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 45.4N  49.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     29/1200Z 47.4N  45.6W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     30/1200Z 52.0N  37.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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