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TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2001

A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WGMJ REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 55 KT...AND A 
1004 MB PRESSURE...NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF DEAN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE 
PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A 
TROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE...AND SINCE THE SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATES 
THAT THE STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER...DEAN IS BEING 
RE-DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM.  THE HISTORY OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SHIP SUGGESTS THAT ITS REPORTED WIND SPEED IS 
SOMEWHAT HIGH...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  THE STORM 
SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER WATER IN A DAY OR SO AND IS LIKELY TO 
BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THEN.

MOTION IS NE...050/16.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS 
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH ACCELERATION FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...OR SOONER...THE 
SYSTEM MAY MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 38.3N  61.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 40.0N  59.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 42.0N  55.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 43.5N  51.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     29/0600Z 45.0N  47.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     30/0600Z 49.0N  40.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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