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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2001

EASY COME...EASY GO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER COULD
NOT LOCATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD SWIRL
OF DEAN.  THE LOWEST PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE 1013-1014 MB AND THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 42 KT TO THE EAST OF THE SWIRL.
DEAN IS THUS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
SMALL CENTER COULD NOT SURVIVE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR DURING THE
NIGHT AND A DOSE OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW.
 
THE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING 305/15...ALTHOUGH RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.  THE REMAINS
OF DEAN ARE LIKELY TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WITH AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT 
THEY MAY MERGE WITH THE TROUGH.  EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...REGENERATION.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON DEAN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 22.4N  70.2W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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