ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DEAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2001 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOUND A 1010 MB CENTER WITH 65 KT 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE WAVE IS UPGRADED DIRECTLY TO TROPICAL STORM DEAN BASED ON THIS DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE IFFY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/22. DEAN IS BEING STEERED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD CONTINUE THE PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD RECURVE DEAN NORTHEASTWARD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CENTER OF DEAN IS EXPOSED ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION...AND MUCH OF THE CURRENT WIND IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID MOTION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR DECREASING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR PERSISTS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1800Z 19.2N 65.9W 50 KTS 12HR VT 23/0000Z 20.1N 68.2W 50 KTS 24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.7N 71.0W 55 KTS 36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.2N 72.2W 60 KTS 48HR VT 24/1200Z 24.6N 72.4W 65 KTS 72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.4N 71.7W 70 KTS NNNN