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TROPICAL STORM DEAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOUND A 1010 MB CENTER
WITH 65 KT 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
THE WAVE IS UPGRADED DIRECTLY TO TROPICAL STORM DEAN BASED ON THIS
DATA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE IFFY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE
OF THE CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/22.  DEAN IS BEING
STEERED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IN THE SHORT
TERM SHOULD CONTINUE THE PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD RECURVE DEAN
NORTHEASTWARD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE CENTER OF DEAN IS EXPOSED ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION...AND MUCH OF THE CURRENT WIND IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID
MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR DECREASING
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR PERSISTS...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE BAHAMAS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1800Z 19.2N  65.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 20.1N  68.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.7N  71.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 23.2N  72.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 24.6N  72.4W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.4N  71.7W    70 KTS
 
 
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