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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THIS 
EVENING.  THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DETERIORATED 
MARKEDLY...WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHEARING OFF TO THE 
NORTHEAST.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT WILL BE LEFT WHEN THE CENTER 
EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IF IN FACT IT DOES.

THE CENTER IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIX...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH MUCH OF IT SEEMINGLY AFFECTED BY THE TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE AVN AND GFDL...WHICH DO NOT
BRING CHANTAL INTO THE GULF.  IF CHANTAL DOES EMERGE OVER WATER...A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE U.S. GULF STATES SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO.  EVEN THE AVN NOW DEVELOPS ONLY A VERY SMALL UPPER-LEVEL 
AREA FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER CHANTAL...AND THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AS THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 18.8N  90.4W    25 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N  91.5W    25 KTS...OVER WATER
24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N  93.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N  94.9W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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