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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/20.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED....BRINGING THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
AROUND 48 HOURS.  THE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST SHOWED A RATHER LARGE
TRACK SHIFT TO THE LEFT FROM THE 12Z TO 18Z RUN.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 24
HOURS.
 
THE STORM CONTINUES TO SPUTTER AWAY...TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED.
THERE IS A RECENT LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED.  A RECENT RECON FLIGHT
FOUND 58 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND NOT 
MUCH WIND ANYWHERE ELSE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. 
 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT QUITE 
BRING THE WIND TO HURRICANE FORCE BEFORE LANDFALL...IT DOES FORECAST 
60 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST WAS 75 KNOTS 
AT 48 HOURS AND I AM BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY TO 70 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS... 
BY WHICH TIME THE CENTER MAY BE INLAND.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE AND
FOR MEXICO ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 15.7N  78.2W    50 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.3N  81.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.2N  84.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  86.2W    65 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N  87.8W    70 KTS...JUST INLAND
72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N  90.5W    45 KTS...BACK OVER WATER
  
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