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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN CHASING CHANTAL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  RECON DATA SHOW THAT...FINALLY...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A CENTER OF 1006 MB.  SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH DISTINCT HOOKING
BANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BOTH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
AND RECON DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS.  THE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
INTENSIFY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD WITH CHANTAL.  IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE OCEANIC
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE.  CHANTAL COULD STRENGTHEN MORE
THAN INDICATED JUST BEFORE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 

CHANTAL APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 TO 22 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO
THE NORTH OF CHANTAL.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE PATTERN
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AT A LONGER RANGE WHEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  BY THEN...CHANTAL COULD ENTER THE GULF
OF MEXICO EITHER CROSSING YUCATAN OR THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE LATTER IS THE OPTION PROVIDED BY THE NCEP AVN GLOBAL MODEL.

CHANTAL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST 
OFFICE INFORMATION BEFORE YOU BEGIN WEEKEND PLANS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 14.3N  67.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N  70.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  74.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  78.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  81.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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