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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH EXCELLENT 
OUTFLOW.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HUNTED VERY 
HARD...GOOD JOB...AND FOUND A SMALL 1010 MB CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ARE BEING 
RESUMED. 

THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS 
INDICATED.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A 
SLOW STRENGTHENING...A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN 
CHANTAL ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE 
MORE FAVORABLE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS. MOST OF THE 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH OF CHANTAL. THIS FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A 
CONTINUATION OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 13.2N  65.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N  69.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N  73.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  77.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N  81.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  85.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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