ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001

EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE...THE RECON HAS 
NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THIS REAFFIRMS ONE MORE 
TIME THE VALUE OF AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE.
 
CHANTAL IS PROBABLY A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME BUT 
ADVISORIES ARE STILL BEING ISSUED UNTIL RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THE 
LACK OF CIRCULATION. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
AND HEAVY RAINS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

NOTE...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ASSUME THAT CHANTAL WILL 
REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 12.9N  58.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 12.9N  61.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N  65.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N  70.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  74.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  80.0W    85 KTS
 
 
NNNN