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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001
EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE...THE RECON HAS
NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THIS REAFFIRMS ONE MORE
TIME THE VALUE OF AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE.
CHANTAL IS PROBABLY A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME BUT
ADVISORIES ARE STILL BEING ISSUED UNTIL RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THE
LACK OF CIRCULATION. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
NOTE...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ASSUME THAT CHANTAL WILL
REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 12.9N 58.0W 35 KTS
12HR VT 17/0600Z 12.9N 61.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 17/1800Z 13.5N 65.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 18/0600Z 14.5N 70.0W 65 KTS
48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 74.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 80.0W 85 KTS
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