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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2001
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION.  CONVENTIONAL INTENSITY FORECAST FACTORS...LOW
SHEAR...HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE...SUGGEST
STRENGTHENING. THIS IS REAFFIRMED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL
WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS AND
NEARLY 100 KNOTS BY THREE DAYS. THE GFDL IS NOW INTENSIFYING THE
SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LESSER
ANTILLES.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS 
BUT STILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS 
AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...ABOUT 20 KNOTS
AND BECAUSE THERE IS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WITH ITS CURRENT SPEED AND GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS
WOULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND ANY REFORMATION OF THE
CENTER COULD CHANGE BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 12.5N  47.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N  50.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N  54.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N  57.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N  61.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  66.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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