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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001
 
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS SHOWED THAT BARRY DEEPENED 14 MB IN 
SIX HOURS THIS MORNING.  THE PRESSURE HAS MOMENTARILY STABILIZED 
AROUND 990 MB...BUT WITH A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST RIGHT OVER THE 
CENTER BARRY SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON.  WITH BARRY NOW 
MOVING STEADILY CLOSER TO LAND...ONLY ANOTHER 15 KT OR SO OF 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...IN ACCORD WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
MODELS.

THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BARRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS WEST VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AFTER
LANDFALL...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS COULD LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER
SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 28.4N  86.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 29.6N  86.3W    75 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  86.7W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.4N  87.4W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/1200Z 33.3N  88.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT     08/1200Z 33.9N  89.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
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