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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2001

WHILE IT STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNHEALTHY...BARRY HAS IMPROVED IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HR WITH A CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THAT IS ALSO WHERE A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND 44 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOW AT 015/2.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST BY THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE DROPPING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.  THIS LENDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE ALMOST UNANIMOUS MODEL OPINION THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND PUSH BARRY TO THE
NORTH.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD. 
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS ARE VICBAR AND LBAR...WHICH WANT
TO TAKE BARRY TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
IGNORE THESE AND TAKE BARRY ALONG THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN
ABOUT 30 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER
BARRY...WHICH IS A CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT
COMPARED TO 24 HR AGO.  HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS NOT YET TAKEN FULL
ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.  ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO DO THE SAME.  ALTHOUGH
THE HIGHEST FORECAST POINT WIND IS 50 KT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
THAT BARRY COULD REACH 55-60 KT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT ARE THE WESTERLIES SEEN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES.  WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THESE WILL MISS THE
STORM...THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THEY MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON SUNDAY
MORNING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
FOR THE FIRST 12 HR TO REFLECT THIS AND THE CURRENT LEVEL OF
STORM ORGANIZATION.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY IF BARRY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK
OR GETS LARGER THAN FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 27.4N  87.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 27.8N  87.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 29.2N  87.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.2N  87.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/0000Z 33.2N  87.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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