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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001
 
THE 12 AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS THE SAME SCENARIO AS THE PREVIOUS
RUN.  AN IMPULSE AT 500 MB DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOMES A WEAK 
CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN 36 HOURS.  THIS ACCELERATES 
BARRY NORTHWARD OR MAYBE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A WHILE AROUND THE 
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/01.  THE 
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO 
ABOUT 10 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND THIS TRACK SHOULD MOVE BARRY INLAND 
IN 30 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS STILL SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF A COMPOSITE 
OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVN MODELS.

U.S. AIRFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT TODAY INDICATES THAT BARRY REMAINS A 
35-KNOT STORM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...NORTHEAST AND 
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  ALSO 
THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTHENING AND SO 
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRINGING THE WIND TO 55 KNOTS BEFORE 
LANDFALL INSTEAD OF 60 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THAT THE TROPICAL 
STORM WARNING BE EXTENDED EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 27.2N  87.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 27.7N  87.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 29.0N  87.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  87.3W    55 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/1800Z 33.0N  88.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/1800Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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