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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001

BARRY LOOKS MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY THAN 24 HOURS
AGO.  HOWEVER THERE WERE NO REPORTS FROM THE RECON OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS.  BECAUSE BARRY DEFINITELY HAS A LARGE AND WELL DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB AND
DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 35-KNOT
SYSTEM UNTIL FURTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.  IT COULD BE A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AS GLOBAL MODELS PREDICTED...THE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND
NOW BARRY IS UNDER AN EAST TO NORTHEAST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE SHEAR AND IN FACT...SOME OF THEM DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.  THIS PATTERN WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH MAY BEGIN LATER TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS MAKE BARRY A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

BARRY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...PERHAPS JUST A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO BE ERODED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS NEW PATTERN WOULD
PROVIDE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN A DAY OR TWO AS BARRY SWINGS
AROUND THE DISTURBANCE.  MODELS...MOSTLY DYNAMICAL...RESPOND TO THIS
FEATURE BY MOVING BARRY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE SHIFTED OR REQUIRED
RESPECTIVELY LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BARRY.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 26.7N  87.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  88.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.3N  88.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  89.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  89.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 30.0N  89.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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