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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2001
 
BARRY HAS REGAINED SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING AND 
RECON FOUND 35 TO 40 KT WINDS AND 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.  
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE EAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLY SHEAR.  OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BETTER CONVECTIVE 
CHARACTER TODAY THAN AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE 
MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON TAKING BARRY 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THERE IS 
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS WITH NOGAPS TAKING THE 
CYCLONE WESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS 
COAST...WHILE THE AVN TURNS BARRY SHARPLY NORTHWARD ACROSS 
PENSACOLA.  IN FACT THE...THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE 
EASTERNMOST MODELS WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  WHILE I HAVE NOT 
COMPLETELY IGNORED THOSE TWO FORECASTS...I AM HAVING TROUBLE SEEING 
THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SUCH A LARGE 
AND STRONG SURFACE-TO-300 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS 
ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST SLOWS DOWN BARRY TO ABOUT 3 KT BY 48 HOURS AND IS VERY 
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND THE GUNS ENSEMBLE AND GFDL 
MODEL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS 
BRING BARRY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO 80 KT AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...BY 72 
HOURS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THE SHEAR ACROSS 
BARRY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AND EVEN BUILD A WEAK 200 MB RIDGE OVER THE 
CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH ALONG THE GULF 
COAST...I HAVE OPTED TO ONLY BRING THE INTENSITY UP SLOWLY.  NOTE 
THAT IF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THE FORECAST WEAK SHEAR 
AND STRONG NORTHERLY 200 MB JET PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ON THE EAST 
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 27.0N  87.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 27.1N  88.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 27.3N  88.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N  89.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.9N  90.4W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  91.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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