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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2001
 
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND 54 KT WINDS 
AT 1000 FT AND A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO 
DEVELOP AND NOW WRAPS MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW 
IS GOOD IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND HAS IMPROVED TO THE NORTHWEST... 
BUT REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO UPEPR-LEVEL SHEAR.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/03 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY.  
ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE STATISTICAL MODELS... 
AGREE ON BARRY GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND 
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 
STRENGTH OF THE HEAT WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY 36 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD 
ALSO ACT TO KEEP BARRY FROM GAINING MUCH LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK IS BETWEEN NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL...AND CLOSE TO THE SPEED 
OF THE AVN MODEL.

SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER... IN 36 TO 48 HOURS THE NORTHERLY 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND THAT COULD ALLOW FOR BARRY 
TO STRENGTHEN MORE THAN THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.  THIS 
WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF A 200 MB 50 KT JET MAX DEVELOPS ON THE 
EAST SIDE LIKE THE AVN MODEL IS PREDICTING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS A BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS BARRY UP 79 KT IN 
72 HOURS.
 
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 26.4N  85.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 26.7N  85.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 27.2N  86.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.6N  87.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N  88.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  90.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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