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TROPICAL STORM BARRY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 TO 53 KT WINDS 
AT 1000 FT...WHICH NOW MAKES THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TROPICAL STORM BARRY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/04 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE INNER 
CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND THERE MAY BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE 
CENTER POSITION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME 
ERRATIC MOTION IN THE TRACK.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL 
GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN 
TURNS BARRY WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 
HOURS. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE CLIPER AND A98E...WHICH TAKE THE 
CYCLONE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  I HAVE 
DISCOUNTED THOSE TWO MODELS BASED ON THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S.

SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION...BUT WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE MAY BE 
SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES 
COMPLETELY TROPICAL.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...WATCHES 
OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF 
COASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1900Z 26.3N  84.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 26.9N  85.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 27.3N  86.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.6N  87.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N  88.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  90.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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