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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2001

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A
SMALL BUT ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT BANDING FEATURES.
IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BUT USING
CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IT IS LOCATED UNDER THE
CONVECTION.  THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR...MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE POORLY-DEFINED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OR A LOW PRESSURE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO 
EXTEND WESTWARD. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON 
THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME 
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IF IT WEAKENS....IT COULD TAKE A MORE 
WESTERLY TRACK.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 13.1N  48.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N  50.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.5N  52.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N  55.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N  57.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N  62.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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