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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS REMAINED STEADY THROUGH MOST OF THIS 
MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES 
...WHILE THE INNER CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
MAINTAINED AT 25 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 
T1.5...25 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE 
NORTH AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16. OVERNIGHT...THE DEPRESSION HAS 
ACCELERATED MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL POSITION 
WAS KEPT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SATELLITE POSITIONS IN 
ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE BUOY 
POSITION FROM ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO.  BUT EVEN WITH THIS...THE INITIAL 
POSITION AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO 
CAMPS... THERE IS STILL REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS 
FORECAST TRACKS.  THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION 
WEST-NORTHWEST... WHEREAS THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL 
MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD.  THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS 
DID NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL AND LOSE THE SYSTEM 
AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL WEAKENS THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY 
AND TAKES IT ALMOST DUE WEST.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS 
AGREE ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION TO 
GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD AS THE LARGE COLD LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 
GRADUALLY FILLS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE BAM DEEP AND CLIPER MODELS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CURRENTLY OVER MARGINAL SSTS FOR ANY 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST IS 
PASSING OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS...WHILE THE WARM MOIST INFLOW 
FROM THE SOUTH IS LIKELY HELPING THE RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF 50W LONGITUDE...SSTS 
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ONE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT IS THE EXACT TRACK OF 
THE DEPRESSION.  RECENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT 
THE CYCLONE MAY BE TRACKING MORE WESTWARD.  IF THE DEPRESSION TRACKS 
FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS 
AND MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 12.3N  46.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.2N  48.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.3N  51.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.2N  53.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  56.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N  60.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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