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TROPICAL STORM ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2001
 
THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE STALLED FOR A FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS NOW INDICATES THAT A MOTION OF ABOUT 
010/5 HAS RESUMED.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERSE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A MOSTLY 
WESTWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO IN 72 HOURS AND THE AVIATION MODEL 
SHOWING A NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD SLOW MOTION TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA 
IN 72 HOURS.  OTHER MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT TRACKS.  THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HOURS 
AND THEN STATIONARY FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE 
ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.
 
THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND REPORTED LATELY IS 33 KNOTS AT SABINE PASS 
CMAN STATION SO THE MAX WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS...DOWN 10 
KNOTS FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY MOVES OVER LAND.
 
IT IS NOTED THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OR RAIN NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 29.1N  95.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.0N  94.9W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N  94.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  94.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     08/0000Z 31.0N  94.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
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