ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2001
THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE STALLED FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS NOW INDICATES THAT A MOTION OF ABOUT
010/5 HAS RESUMED.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERSE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO IN 72 HOURS AND THE AVIATION MODEL
SHOWING A NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD SLOW MOTION TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
IN 72 HOURS. OTHER MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT TRACKS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HOURS
AND THEN STATIONARY FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE
ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.
THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND REPORTED LATELY IS 33 KNOTS AT SABINE PASS
CMAN STATION SO THE MAX WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS...DOWN 10
KNOTS FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY MOVES OVER LAND.
IT IS NOTED THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OR RAIN NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 29.1N 95.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 06/1200Z 30.0N 94.9W 35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 94.5W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 07/1200Z 31.0N 94.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 31.0N 94.5W 20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
NNNN
Problems?