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TROPICAL STORM KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000

...KEITH WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
FINALLY MOVING NORTHWEST...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING 
THREAT CONTINUES...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN BELIZE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.7 WEST
OR INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 20 MILES...32 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
 
KEITH IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  55 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES
...130 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
 
MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASE BY TONIGHT 
OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RECENT HAM
RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
TO THE WEST OF BELIZE CITY SINCE SATURDAY.  ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED
10 TO 15 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.3 N... 88.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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