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TROPICAL STORM KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
...KEITH DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...WARNINGS
CHANGED...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO THE MEXICO-
BELIZE BORDER...AND HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING
BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MONKEY RIVER TOWN
BELIZE TO THE MEXICO-BELIZE BORDER.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...55 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.  THIS IS ALSO
VERY NEAR SAN PEDRO BELIZE.
 
KEITH IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  WHILE LITTLE MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...ANY CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT
DRIFT COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER NORTHERN BELIZE TONIGHT. A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR  70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS KEITH MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  DUE TO THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 10 TO 15
INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 88.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR  2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 988 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...TUESDAY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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