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BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000
 
...KEITH STILL STATIONARY AND WEAKENING SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH REMAINS STATIONARY.  LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.  A SLOW NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATE TODAY OR TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND KEITH WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
THE MOST RECENT CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS  979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6-8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
 
RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE
BAY OF CHETUMAL AND THAT PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY
WATER CAN RAPIDLY RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.  PEOPLE IN AND AROUND THE BAY
SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 20 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 87.8 W.  MOVEMENT
STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 979 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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