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HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000

...KEITH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CONTINUES TO POUND BELIZE...AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 40 MILES
...60 KM NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 48 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.30 INCHES.
 
THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...EASTERN MEXICO...BELIZE AND HONDURAS.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  WITH THE SLOW
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE PATH OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 2O INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAVE LIKELY BEEN OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...17.9 N... 87.9 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...MONDAY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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