[NCEP Logo] HOME PRODUCTS FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
...DANGEROUS INNER CORE OF HURRICANE KEITH IS PARTIALLY ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND NORTHEASTERN BELIZE...EXTREME DAMAGE IS
LIKELY DUE TO STORM SURGE...STRONG WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
 
KEITH HAS BEEN WOBBLING ERRATICALLY...BUT THE GENERAL MOTION IS A
SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BUT A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.  
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 942
MB...27.82 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

THERE HAS A BEEN A REPORT OF A COLLAPSED HOUSE WITH INJURIES IN
BELIZE CITY.  
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 87.6 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 942 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN


Problems?