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HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
...KEITH NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE COAST AND POUNDING BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.8 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.  A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO
NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A HAM RADIO REPORT OF 125 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WAS RECEIVED ABOUT THREE HOURS AGO FROM SAN PEDRO ON
AMBERGRIS CAY BELIZE.  
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.30 INCHES.
 
THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE AND HONDURAS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  WITH THE SLOW MOTION
OF THE HURRICANE...DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PATH
OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 2O INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAVE LIKELY BEEN OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.
 
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...17.8 N... 87.8 W.  MOVEMENT NEARLY
STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 958 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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