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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE OCT 3 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
11.2N 57.6W 54 X X X 54 TKPK 173N 627W X X 5 8 13
12.2N 59.9W 2 30 X 1 33 TNCM 181N 631W X X 2 9 11
13.5N 62.5W X 6 17 1 24 TISX 177N 648W X X 2 12 14
SKPG 125N 717W X X X 5 5 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 11 12
TNCC 122N 690W X X X 11 11 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 13 13
SVMG 110N 640W X 1 11 3 15 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 10 10
TTPP 106N 614W X 16 4 1 21 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 8 8
TTPT 112N 608W X 24 2 X 26 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 4 4
TGPY 120N 618W X 17 8 X 25 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 2 2
TBPB 131N 595W 2 27 1 X 30 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 12 12
TVSV 131N 612W X 20 7 X 27 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 5 5
TLPL 138N 610W X 16 9 X 25 ST CROIX VI X X 2 12 14
TFFF 146N 610W X 10 11 1 22 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 11 12
TDPR 153N 614W X 4 14 1 19 SAN JUAN PR X X X 12 12
TFFR 163N 615W X 1 11 3 15 PONCE PR X X X 13 13
TAPA 171N 618W X X 7 5 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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