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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT MON SEP 18 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
23.0N 88.5W 53 X X X 53 PENSACOLA FL X X 2 9 11
23.8N 88.6W 40 X X X 40 MOBILE AL X X 2 10 12
25.0N 88.8W 20 4 2 1 27 GULFPORT MS X X 4 9 13
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 BURAS LA X 1 7 7 15
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 5 9 14
MUAN 219N 850W 2 2 2 3 9 NEW IBERIA LA X X 4 8 12
MMCZ 205N 869W 12 2 1 1 16 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 7 8
MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 7 7
MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 5 5
MMMD 210N 897W 4 5 3 2 14 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 4 4
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2
KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2
MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 7 8
FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X 5 8 13
VENICE FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 89W X 4 10 4 18
TAMPA FL X X X 3 3 GULF 28N 91W X 3 9 5 17
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4 GULF 28N 93W X X 5 7 12
ST MARKS FL X X X 6 6 GULF 28N 95W X X 1 6 7
APALACHICOLA FL X X 1 7 8 GULF 27N 96W X X X 4 4
PANAMA CITY FL X X 1 8 9 GULF 25N 96W X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
C FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN
D FROM 1PM SUN TO 1PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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